Friday, March 16, 2012

Blog #8: Sanctions choke off Iran oil output

This article discusses the decrease in the output of Iranian oil. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the country's crude production fell by 50,000 barrels a day to 3.38m b/d in February; the last time it was that low was in late 2002. Late last year, the IEA predicted that Iranian production capacity would decline by 890,000 b/d to just under 3m b/d by 2016 as a result of tighter sanctions. Yet it is still possible that the Iranian output of oil could fall even further. In its monthly market report, the IEA said that from July onward- when a European Union oil embargo comes into effect- Iranian exports could be limited by about 800,000 b/d to 1m b/d, about a third of the current total. Moreover, the unscheduled production outages from South Sudan to Syria have reduced global supply, despite the fact that Saudi Arabian output is running at a 30-year high. That, combined with geopolitical issues about Iran, has pushed oil prices up 20% since last December. And Obama still firmly states that, "I'm determined to prevent Iran from getting a nuclear weapon."

Daniel Poneman, the US deputy secretary of energy, recently visited Kuwait. "There is a need for more production as oil prices are not consistent with the global economic recovery," he says. Iran is one of the world's greatest hydrocarbon powers, with the largest conventional oil reserves after Saudi Arabia and Venezuela and also contains the biggest natural gas reserves after Russia. But its oilfields are old and dwindling, with annual rates of decline in some cases exceeding 10%. This is the main reason for the decrease in production. The oil is Iran's lifeline and the drop in output would further increase the economic pressures on Tehran just as a power struggle is under way between competing conservative factions following the parliamentary elections on March 2 mainly because oil exports provide half of Iran's government revenues and account for 80% of the country's total exports. In the US, economists fear rising petrol prices could jeopardise the country's slow return to economic health. We are currently in a growth recession, but we have the potential to do worse in the future than now. The more production Poneman is talking about would help us recover faster because it would show to to our people (and the world) that we are finally recovering.

http://www.cnn.com/2012/03/14/business/iran-oil-output/index.html

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