Tara Rudo
10/2/2012
3:15pm
I have talked a lot about the consequences of climate change in previous blogs. Scientists have forecasted an El Niño this year which normally would excite those in drought-stricken areas, but the weakness of this El Niño may not fulfill those hopes. The warmer ocean waters are predicted to trigger an El Niño but it is expected to be probably short, and hardly nasty or brutish. “El Niño Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, which includes the mirror-image oceanic cooling called La Niña probably made the past year’s drought worse.” El Niño is expected to bring relief to those areas, yet this year it seems the Southeast and Gulf Coast will get most of the precipitation instead of the drought-stricken Midwest. Large coastal cities like Baltimore and New York City are expected to see a wetter winter this year. Scientists believe that the cause of the possible weaker El Niño is due to a large pocket of cold water in the North Pacific, from the coast of Alaska out to sea, is off-setting the event. Three things need to happen in order for an El Niño to be present. The first is that equatorial sea surface temperatures must rise at least half a degree Celsius above normal across a particular part of the Pacific. This has happened so far but the cold pocket near Alaska has caused this warming to weaken in the Pacific. Next, the atmosphere must show, in measurements of winds and moisture, that it has plugged in to the ocean’s energy and is beginning to respond. Scientists have said that this step has been weak and likely the reason why the El Niño may fizzle out. The last is that these conditions must be predicted to last at least three months, which is looking like won’t happen. Areas that are suffering from drought need the El Niño to be strong and if predictions are correct, this drought will continue causing major problems for families, businesses, farming, etc.
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