Alex Clute
March 6, 2011
1100 EST
There are a number of pressing problems on humanity's plate, and all of them are interconnected. Globally we are facing the prospects of escalating food prices and shortfalls in fresh water supply along with increasing oil prices and a climatic regime of growing instability. All of these factors militate to disrupt societies with them very likely playing a part in the unrest throughout the Arab world. The countries of the Middle East have seen much of the global population in increase in the past decades skewing their populations to a younger, more volatile demographic. This has created serious strain on the regional water suppliers, for example, as reported in the Guardian, the Middle East has 6.3% of the global population but only 1.4% of the world's renewable fresh water. The World Bank has predicted that this fresh water supply will be reduced by half in the coming years. Indeed, in an article from India Express, water demand will possibly surpass 40% of water supply in the next couple of decades. This will dramatically effect agriculture as it uses 71% of fresh water supplies, further compounding food problems.
In an article from the Brookings Institute, an attempt is made to disentangle the different factors and some possible solutions with regards to the price volatility of food. The article makes the excellent point that the problem with food is not just high prices, but also rapid swings to low prices. While high prices hurt the consumer on the demand side, low prices are detrimental to the producers, i.e. farmers, on the supply side. Continuing, the article connects food price instability to oil prices and the directly related phenomena of climate change. Thus, the heavily dependent nature of modern industrial agriculture on oil-derived inputs from the petrochemical industry combined with climatic volatility causes rapid fluctuation of food prices. Competition from biofuels are also mentioned. However, the article downplays the role of speculation in price volitility and is completely silent concerning the role of agribusinesses and their tremendous influence.
An article from the Malaysia Star takes a different stance and looks at speculation's impact on global food markets. The article begins by citing such factors affecting food prices such as the recent heat wave in Russia and flooding in Australia and also the increasing demand in India and China for meat. It then goes on to point out that there is more than enough food to meet global demand and that the real problem with food distribution and price is linked to viewing food as just another commodity, citing a UN Food and Agriculture Organization figure that, globally, agriculture produces 2720 kilocalories per person per day. Much food is lost due to long supply chains and storage times that results in wastage of vast quantities of food. This article also points out that agribusiness has consistently worked to influence governments to deregulate all types of food production to their advantage.
What is becoming increasingly apparent is that the present system of food production and distribution, as well as future access to fresh water supplies, will create serious problems for all. It is often cited that the poor will bare this disproportionately, and this is most certainly true, but it would be naive, to say the least, to believe that the developed nations will not also feel the effects of these compounding problems. The question is what will we do? So far the government respond seems to intensify the current power relations in a desperate attempt to maintain control. This while only worsen and accelerate the problems facing humanity. It must be considered that after centuries of allegiance to the ideas of global economic growth and expansion, we have only managed to degrade the global carrying capacity of Earth in order to convert natural capital into financial capital that has been used for the aggrandizement of a small section of the global population. It remains to be seen if we humans can overcome our failings and come together to resolve these crises in a way that supports democracy and economic equality while at the same time maintaining the environmental integrity that underwrites our existence.
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