Friday, August 24, 2007

World population will grow significantly - despite falling fertility.

The current global population trends are quite unique, there seems to be a dramatic decline in fertility rate for the last two decades in many developed countries. But on the other hand we will most certaintly experience further massive increase of the world population. In the most recent reports by the United Nations Population Division projects a population of 8.04 billion for the year 2025 and 9.3 billion 2050, and an increase of 2.35 billion is expected from 1995-2025. According to the United Nations these assumptions are smaller than previous estimates. All of these estimates are based upon each countries fertility rate. Countries like Pakistan, Nigeria, Iran, or India, where the Total Fertility Rates are still far above the reproductive level of 2.1 children per woman. In recent studies show that Pakistan fertility rate is about 5 children per woman. Supposedly its supposed to drop to 2.1 during the next 25 years. Now my question is, is it even possible to completly stop or even slow down world population growth during the next few decades? The only way that this would be possible if every woman would have 1 child per household and mabe just mabe we could stablilize the world population for about 7.5 billion by 2025.


Mariam Ahmad
http://www.iiasa.ac.at/Research/LUC/Papers/gkh1/chap1.htm

1 comment:

Stephen Sills said...

http://math.berkeley.edu/~galen/popclk.html